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How election’ll be won, lost shape election - Edoman - 02-14-2019
How election’ll be won, lost shape election
Thursday, February 14, 2019 politics
![[Image: Buhari-5.jpg]](https://sunnewsonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Buhari-5.jpg)
Seventy three presidential candidates will be on the ballot this Saturday for the country’s sixth uninterrupted presidential election since its return to democratic rule in 1999. But the number is the highest in the country’s political history since it gained independence in 1960.
Of the lot, however, only about four appear to have the wherewithal to run for the contest. The four are: Former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Deputy Governor, Kingsley Moghalu of the Young Progressives Party (YPP), Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim of the People’s Trust (PT), President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
However, despite the fact that there are many contestants, the battle is a straight one between Buhari and Atiku. This is largely so because apart from the advantage of financial muscle, the two leading candidates appear to be the ones with verifiable party structures across the country. Buhari’s APC has governors in 22 states, while the PDP has 13 states, leaving the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) with one state. In Nigeria, men and material resources are needed to win in any election.
Historically, this is the first time two strong candidates from the North will be running on two most formidable political parties in the country, thus making the contest an all north’s affair, just like the country had an all south affair in 1999 when two Yoruba, Chief Olu Falae and Dr. Olusegun Obasanjo, ran on the two most formidable political parties at the time- defunct ANPP and the PDP respectively.
With the current scenario, Daily Sun gathered, all the other sentiments -religion, tribe and ethnicity – that usually influence pattern of voting in the North, in favour of any major candidate from the area will be mutually shared between Buhari and Atiku, thus making the contest a one too close call.
Elder statesman, Tanko Yakassai, who is already in his early 90s corroborated the above fact. Yakassai, was former President Shehu Shagari’s Liaison Officer to the National Assembly.
He said: “I am more at home with the present situation than the 2015 situation. Why I am at home is that the serious contentious issues such as religion, ethnicity, and sectionalism are now not part of the campaigns. In 2015, those three issues drove the campaigns because Buhari was from the North, was Hausa-Fulani and a Muslim. Jonathan, who contested against him, was an Ijaw man from the South and a Christian.
“So now these three controversial issues are no longer present. Now the two major contestants, Buhari and Atiku, are from the same ethnic group, same section of the country and same religion. So these controversial issues are no longer the driving forces.”
Historical perspectives
In 2015 elections, all the major socio-cultural and political groups, including Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), endorsed Buhari as its preferred choice. The only seemingly northern group that endorsed former president, Goodluck Jonathan, who was the PDP’s candidate in that election, was Northern Elders Council (NEC), led by Yakassai, a founding member of the ACF. This year, both Buhari and Atiku appear to be enjoying equal proportion of endorsements in the North.
For instance, once the Professor Ango Abdullahi-led Northern Elders Forum (NEF) announced its endorsement of Atiku, another group was put together, named Kungiyar Dattawan Arewa Initiative (KDAI), to endorse Buhari. The group’s position was read by General Paul Tarfa (retd), whose name has been sent to the Senate for confirmation as Chairman of the governing board of North East Development Commission (NEDC). Ironically, up until October 2016, NEF was still vehemently in support of the Buhari administration, to the extent that it publicly passed a vote of confidence in him at a time some Nigerians felt the government had derailed.
But like Yakassai-led NEC then, KDAI too, investigations reveal, appears to have been hurriedly put together for the purpose of the endorsement, to counter Professor Ango Abdullahi-led NEF. However, ACF which endorsed Buhari in 2015 purely on the basis that Jonathan betrayed the North on the issue zoning, has gone ahead to endorse Buhari, ahead of Atiku, who played a prominently role in the formation of the group 19 years ago.
Daily Sun’s attempt to find out why ACF, which has always claim to be a unifying force in the North will choose Buhari, ahead of Atiku was met with brick wall. All the senior members of the group contacted by Daily Sun either feigned ignorance of the position or insisted they would have nothing to add beyond what were stated in the group’s press statement, issued on Tuesday, where it said its endorsement of Buhari was among other things based on his performance so far in office and his integrity.
But Second Republic member of the House Representatives and Russian-trained Medical Doctor, Junaid Mohammed, believes that all the groups in the North that are falling over each other to endorse the two candidates do not possess the democratic credentials to so do.
According to him, “you cannot gather personalities, and use them to legitimise your endorsement of Buhari or Atiku. That is not my understanding of politics and that is not the way I play politics. I have never claimed to speak for the North, so I don’t know what the decision of the North will be.
“And nobody can claim the arrogance to speak for the North, to the extent that if he said the North should vote for Buhari, they will listen to him. I doubt, if the North will listen. The North has never been a monolithic one. There have always been divergent views on issues about politics. Check the history. So it has been, so it is today, and so it will always be, till the end of time.
“Now, the point I want to make has to do with NEF, ACF and the rest. It is not wrong to use some kinds of people, like a pressure group, within the context of a noble cause, to pressurise the government of the day, to think in some certain direction, or implement certain policies. However, how can a group, that is not democratic, be discussing about democratic ideals? How can you talk about democracy, when you don’t have elections? It is just a one man or two man show. I find that very ridiculous. And these people claim to be representing us. Who are they, to represent us? So, I don’t talk democracy with people who are undemocratic. Since NEF was established, has there been any election? How can you talk of democracy with people who are non-democratic? As for ACF, they do have some semblance of elections, but some of their claims they make on behalf of the North are totally untenable and there is no internal cohesion in the group either.”
Like the various groups, even the Islamic community in the North are equally divided. For instance, while North’s foremost Islamic group, Jama’atul Izalatul Bidi’a Waikamatus Sunnah (JIBWIS), one of the largest Islamic societies in Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, in January announced its endorsement of President Muhammadu Buhari for a second term of office, the Deputy National Leader of the group, Sheikh Sambo Rigachikun, who has more followership than the leader, called on all “well-meaning Muslims” to vote for Atiku, saying the PDP candidate has done more for the Islam and humanity than Buhari.
Considering the prevailing circumstances, therefore, and in spite of the fact that both candidates are Muslims, pundits say, one of them will enjoy more support from the indigenous northern Christians than the other, just as the Muslims in the North will also favour one of them above the other.